UFC 200 Preview & Predictions

UFC 200: Cormier vs Jones II is shaping up to be one of the most exciting UFC cards of all time with 7 out of the 10 fighters on the main card being either current or former champions.  With some hard hitting fighters on the prelims as well, it is one stacked card from top to bottom. Here’s everything you need to know about the fights along with our predictions.

 

(Picture courtesy Wikipedia)

Early Prelims

Diego Sanchez (28 – 8 – 0) vs Joe Lauzon (24 – 12 – 0)

I’ve followed Diegeo “The Nightmare” Sanchez’s career from his time on the first The Ultimate Fighter and after a great start to his career (17-0) he has had a mixed record. Joe Lauzon is a very exciting fighter with 13 post fight bonuses to his name (second highest in the UFC) but is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Evan Dunham. When he’s in the zone, Sanchez is insanely fun to watch, check out his battle with Gilbert Melendez if you need any proof of that statement. This one could well be the slobber knocker of the night. A little known fact is that Daniel Bryan's catchy Yes movement was actually inspired by Sanchez. 

Prediction: Joe Lauzon who has more in his arsenal

Gegard Mousasi (38 – 6 – 2) vs Thiago Santos (13 – 3 – 0)

Mousasi is a very solid fighter who has racked up notable wins over Dan Henderson, Mark Munoz, Costas Philipou among others and has only 6 wins going to the judges scorecard. That’s extremely impressive when you consider the number of fights that he has had. I haven’t seen Thiago Santos in action but the #15 ranked Middleweight is coming off 4 wins in a row.

Prediction:  Gegard Mousasi

Jim Miller (25 – 8 – 0, 1 NC) vs Takanori Gomi (35 – 11 – 0, 1 NC)

Make no mistake about it, both these fighters are very talented and their records speak for themselves. Jim Miller has lost 4 of his last 5 and most recently came up short against Diego Sanchez. The former Pride Lightweight Champion, the Fireball Kid is coming off 2 straight losses and his last match was against Joe Lauzon. Both fighters really need the victory here and will come out swinging for the fences.

Prediction: Jim Miller though Gomi will put up a tough fight 

Prelims

Sage Northcutt (7 – 1 – 0) vs Enrique Marin (9 – 3 – 0)

Sage is incredibly just 20 years of age and he has all the potential to become a future UFC star. He is very skilled in the Octagon, has a great look and is just oozing with charisma. Seriously, just watch him give an interview. Enrique Marin is an unknown so it will be interesting to see what he brings on fight night. If Sage can get a few more wins under his belt, be prepared for the UFC marketing machine to get fully behind him in 2017.  

Prediction: Super Sage Northcutt to continue his journey to superstardom

T.J. Dillashaw (12 – 3 – 0) vs Raphael Assuncao (23 – 4 – 0)    

#1 ranked former Bantamweight champion T J Dillashaw, fresh from losing his title to Dominic Cruz earlier this year, faces off against #3 ranked Raphael Assuncao who has rattled off 7 straight wins. The most intriguing aspect of this win streak is that he won a split decision over TJ though this was before Dillashaw’s epic performance to upset Renan Barao to capture the gold. Will history repeat itself?

Prediction: TJ Dillashaw to cement his title rematch

Johnny Hendricks (17 – 4 – 0) vs Kelvin Gastelum (12 – 2 – 0)

How the mighty have fallen. It wasn’t that long ago that Johnny Hendricks faced off against GSP and everyone thought he had done enough to become the new Welterweight champion. It wasn’t to be though but he then beat Ruthless Robbie Lawler for the vacant title before losing it to him in his first defense. Since then he is 1 – 1 with a devastating recent loss to Stephen Wonderboy Thompson. With wins over Nate The Great Marquardt, Jake Ellenberger and Rick The Horror Story, Kelvin Gastelum is no pushover but he might be outmatched if Big Rigg can get his weight loss act together.

Prediction: Johnny Hendricks though it depends entirely on his weight cut program. 

Cat Zingano (9 – 1 – 0) vs Julianna Pena (8 – 2 – 0)

Cat Zingano has UFC wins over the two women who are on the main card at UFC 200. She’s that good. Her only loss came to then champion Ronda Rousey in a much hyped blink and you miss it 14 second performance. Pena has been successful in the UFC but she probably isn’t at the same level as Cat.
Prediction: Cat Zingano for the easy win

Main Card

Cain Velasquez (13 – 2 – 0) vs Travis Browne (18 – 3 – 1)

2 time Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez looks to bounce back into title contention after his embarrassing title loss to Fabricio Wedum in his home country of Mexico. Though out of the title picture, Hapa though has quietly fought and beaten top Heavyweights including Matt Mitrione, Brenden Schaub, Josh Barnett, Alistair Overeem, Gabriel Gonzaga and Stefan Struve. That’s a very impressive resume to say the least. Cain has all the tools necessary to regain the gold and a victory over Travis will put him in line for a match against current champion Stipe Miocic for the UFC’s hottest title.

Prediction: Cain Velasquez who is the more talented and all rounded fighter to set up a title match.

Frankie Edgar (19 – 4 – 1) vs José Aldo (25 – 2 – 0) 

Jose Aldo’s Featherweight title reign of 1848 days is third on UFC’s all-time list to only Anderson Silva and GSP and he successfully defended his title 7 times including once against Frankie Edgar in 2013. That's right, 1848 days! His often overlooked 18 fight win streak came to a crashing halt when he squared off against the  brash Irishman Connor McGregor and got knocked out in shocking fashion in just 13 seconds. Former Lightweight champion Edgar is on a roll with 5 consecutive wins ever since he lost to Aldo. It is tough to predict how a once dominant champion like Aldo recovers from his crushing title defeat and if he can hold it together mentally, he should be back in world class form.      

Prediction: Jose Aldo to set up the big money title rematch with the Irish sensation Connor McGregor.

Miesha Tate (C) (18 – 5 – 0) vs Amanda Nunes (12 – 4 – 0)

After coming up short against Ronda Rousey twice, it took a Holly Holm title switch and a third title challenge for Cupcake to finally wrap UFC gold around her waist. Amanda will put up a good fight but Miesha should retain her title. More than the match, the question of what is next for the Women’s Bantamweight champion is on everyone’s minds. Does Rousey earn an automatic rematch against Miesha if she decides to return to the Octagon? What if Holly Holm loses her match against Valentina Shevchenko in July?

Prediction: Miesha Tate to set up title rematches against either former champion Holly Holm or Ronda Rousey.

Brock Lesnar ( 5 – 3 – 0) vs Mark Hunt (12 – 10 – 1)   

The return that nearly broke the internet. The Beast versus the Super Samoan. I wrote about the WWE’s big cross over gamble in an earlier post but this is about the UFC’s match making strategy. A win for Hunt will move him up the ranks and could potentially justify a title shot for the ever popular walk away knock out specialist. If he does lose though, it could help clear up the muddy Heavyweight scene.

For Lesnar, a victorious return will help solidify his claim that it was his diverticulitis that held him down in his first run and leave the doors open for another return if the money is right. A Lesnar loss doesn’t harm the UFC in any way. Regardless of the outcome, the buy rate for the PPV will definitely go up with the inclusion of this potential barn burner.

Prediction: Mark Hunt with the walk away KO victory.

Daniel Cormier (C) (17- 1 – 0) vs Jon Jones (I-C) (22 – 1 – 0)

Without a shadow of a doubt, this is UFC’s biggest grudge match right now. If it were the WWE, Cormier vs Jones II would be the main event at WrestleMania, that’s how important this match is. Jon Jones is quite possibly the greatest MMA fighter of all time. He brings innovative offense, a long reach and abundant talent inside the Octagon. The only blemish on his record is because he was disqualified in a match against the clearly outmatched Matt the Hammer Hamill for using illegal 12 to 6 elbows. The build up to the first match between John Jones and Daniel Cormier brought out the deep rooted hatred that they had for each other which ended up in the much publicized media scuffle.

  

Jones’ dominance of the Light Heavyweight division in the UFC though has been marred by his less than perfect record outside of it and he was a pale shadow of his former self in his scrappy 5 round fight against Ovince Saint Preux to win the Interim title. DC, who was on commentary, was spot on when he said that he could have easily beaten Jon Jones in that form. Daniel Cormier has beaten everyone else the division and when he won the vacated Light Heavyweight belt, he was very clear that he was looking forward to the rematch with the former champion.  

Will we see another mediocre performance from Jon Jones? Or will we see the return of the dominant, near unbeatable monster who has dismantled most of his opposition with the greatest of ease in the Octagon? If so, who will be able to dethrone him? Or will DC prove to himself and the world that he is now the better fighter and silence the critics? If yes, how soon can we have Cormier Jones III? Questions, questions and more questions!   

Prediction: Jon Jones who completes his road to redemption by burying his demons once and for all.

(All images courtesy UFC.com)

WWE's Great Cross Over Gamble

At UFC 200, Brock Lesnar will become the first ever under contract WWE athlete to be granted a one off opportunity to fight at a UFC PPV.

The success of the multi-billion dollar wrestling conglomerate, World Wrestling Entertainment has largely been scripted by its willingness to boldly take risks that nobody else was willing to take. The first ever WrestleMania was an awfully big gamble by Vince McMahon to say the least but today, over 30 years later all of the WWF’s then competitors have been relegated to the annals of history. Will the great cross over gamble with the UFC reap rich dividends or will the WWE end up on the losing board?

Brock Lesnar is a once in a lifetime superstar who is both a freak athlete and a massive box office draw. Just ask the UFC. His much anticipated rematch against Frank Mir at UFC 100 ensured an astounding 1.6 million PPV buys which is the all time highest in their PPV history. Number 2 on the list? Brock Lesnar against Shane Carwin from UFC 116 with 1.06 million PPV buys. His destruction of Randy Couture at UFC 91 is at number 5 on the UFC list with 1.01 million PPV buys. Indian fans are not used to the PPV culture so the impact of these numbers is often lost on us. Bear in mind that each PPV buy costs around $ 55 which means that UFC 100 (admittedly one of the strongest cards ever in UFC history with many great matches) did $ 88 Million just in PPV buys. Throw in the live gate, advertising, merchandize sales and the numbers just keep piling up.

Brock’s battle with diverticulitis while in the UFC led him to  eventually return to the WWE where he continued his storied career. Oh and there was that small matter of him beating the Undertaker at WrestleMania which will go down as the most shocking moment in WM history. Who else could have made the term Suplex City extremely popular? Riding high on his victory over Dean Ambrose at WM32, Brock had enough momentum to propel him into any top tier feud heading into SummerSlam. Which is why UFC’s ground breaking announcement at UFC 199 on the return of Brock Lesnar nearly broke the internet. I was watching UFC 199 live and I will frankly admit that I jumped out of my chair in excitement on seeing the promotional video. And apparently I wasn’t the only one.  

As details emerged, it looked as though the old foes had finally smartly turned into friends – the WWE would allow Brock to return to the UFC’s biggest PPV of all time and in return would look to have Rhonda Rousey at next year’s WM. Surely the monetary benefits far outweighed the potential cons, right?

I’m not too sure. The WWE has built Brock Lesnar into a near unstoppable force through mostly strong booking ever since he returned. He’s also on the cover of this year’s WWE 2K17 video game cover which is an honor reserved for those at the top of the WWE mountain. Obviously WWE would ensure that Brock got himself an easy opponent at UFC 200 so that he would come back triumphant and be a major part of SummerSlam, right? Mark Hunt is the furthest thing from a walk in the park and apparently the bookies agree because Hunt is going in as the favourite at -160 while Brock is at +140.

 WWE 2K17 Cover 

(Picture courtesy WWE.com)

So how much does a Brock Lesnar loss hurt him in the WWE? A lot would be an understatement. The WWE will not be able to ignore it so they will have to figure out a way to address the loss in their storylines and try to set things back to the way they were which is easier said than done. If they ignore it , they risk making Lesnar look weak since casual fans would rightly claim that he loses genuine fights but easily tramples his opponents in fixed ones.

What no one else seems to be talking about though is that Ronda Rousey’s star has fallen faster than a pile of bricks and she is no longer the superstar that she was a few months ago. Holly Holm took her apart before proceeding to knock Rousey out and while it is quite possible that the once seemingly invincible judoka could reclaim her title, I believe it wont happen. She is focusing on her fledgling movie career and while the WWE beckons as well, the Rousey that they get just isn’t going to be the same dominant game changing superstar that they expected.     

It could however, just as easily go the other way. Brock Lesnar could pull off the upset win and ride the wave of momentum to insert himself back into the WWE title picture at SummerSlam and be the dominant champion all the way up to the Royal Rumble or even next year’s WM. Rousey could face the winner of Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes and regain her title while becoming a top Hollywood movie star as well. Time will tell whether Vince McMahon’s next big gamble on cross over superstars will hit the jackpot.